A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
